Years to End of Life: How Reliable is EOL Forecasting?

The Need for Proactive Obsolescence Management

Electronic component obsolescence continues to challenge engineers and manufacturers. Without proactive lifecycle planning, companies risk costly redesigns, supply shortages, and production delays.

Our latest Product Change Notice (PCN) analysis shows that waiting until a last-time-buy notification arrives can leave organizations with no time to react. To avoid this, engineers need predictive insights at the point of design—not reactive alerts after the fact.

The solution? End-of-Life forecasting.

Forecast Years to End of Life (YTEOL)

SiliconExpert offers Estimated Years to End of Life (Y-to-EOL) as a critical data point in its comprehensive electronic component database.

Built in partnership with the Center for Advanced Lifecycle Engineering (CALCE) at the University of Maryland, our algorithm analyzes historical trends and procurement patterns to project lifecycle risk and provide early warnings for active components approaching obsolescence.

We evaluate and refine the algorithm’s accuracy to ensure it provides customers with trusted intelligence for confident decision-making.

Reliability Results (2024)

This year’s analysis shows that the Y-to-EOL algorithm achieved an overall accuracy of 92.99%—an improvement over prior studies. The gains are driven by both ongoing enhancements to the model and the expansion of the SiliconExpert database, now covering more than one billion parts.

The full report explores:

• Accuracy improvements across major component categories
• Methodology used to validate predictions
• How EOL forecasting supports proactive obsolescence management

Manage Obsolescence with Confidence

Long product lifecycles demand heightened sensitivity to lifecycle changes. SiliconExpert’s YTEOL algorithm equips engineers and supply chain leaders to anticipate risks early, minimize redesigns, and plan with confidence.

Download the 2024 Reliability Report to explore the full results and see how trusted intelligence can strengthen your lifecycle planning.